The Indiana Fever are heading into their playoff series against the Atlanta Dream as clear underdogs. The Dream are deeper, bigger, and more versatile. The Fever are battered, missing key players, and facing tough questions about their coaching philosophy. But if Indiana wants to pull off an upset, they’ll need to abandon caution, embrace chaos, and run the kind of game that’s been missing from their playbook all season.

The Odds Aren’t in Indiana’s Favor

Let’s be honest: the Atlanta Dream are the better team. They’ve got size, firepower, and a rotation that can punish you inside and out. Indiana, meanwhile, is limping into the series without Dairis Dantas—a loss that hits especially hard against a Dream squad that loves to play double bigs. As one commentator bluntly put it, “You don’t have the talent. You don’t have the matchup. You don’t have the size. You don’t have versatility. You don’t have the athleticism.”

Dantas was the Fever’s answer to teams like the Dream, Aces, and Mercury—squads that run double bigs and force you to play physical. Without her, Indiana’s options are limited. They can’t match up man-to-man. They can’t out-muscle Atlanta in the paint. The only way forward? Change the game entirely.

Steph White’s Coaching Conundrum

Head coach Stephanie White is known for her reactive style. She’s a tactician, always adjusting her game plan to stop the other team’s strengths. It’s a strategy that’s worked in the regular season, but it’s a recipe for disaster against a superior opponent. “You’re not going to win by doing that. You don’t have the personnel to adjust to this Atlanta Dream team,” the analyst warns.

White’s tendency to take the ball out of her stars’ hands when they face defensive pressure is especially troubling. When Caitlin Clark was full-court pressed, White shifted the offense away from her. Now, if Kelsey Mitchell gets doubled, will White do the same? The Fever can’t afford to be reactionary. They need to dictate the terms of engagement.

Forget Matchups. Play Your Game.

If Indiana wants to win, they can’t try to outmatch Atlanta. They have to play their own game—and more than that, they have to resurrect a style that’s been missing: run, run, run.

The Fever’s best chance is to control the tempo, push the pace, and turn every possession into a track meet. Odyssey Sims and Aaliyah Boston have the ability to throw ahead and get the offense moving before Atlanta can set its defense. The days of grinding it out in the halfcourt are over. If Indiana tries to slow things down, they’ll get swept.

“Aaliyah Boston post-ups should be off the menu,” the analyst insists. Boston should only catch the ball near the free throw line, facilitating offense rather than backing down in the post. If the Fever rely on Boston as a traditional post scorer, they’ll play right into Atlanta’s hands—especially with Brie Jones waiting to lock her down.

Shooters Have to Shoot—No Matter What

Kelsey Mitchell is Indiana’s best perimeter weapon, and in this series, she has to play like Allen Iverson circa 2001. Every open look, every half-open look—Mitchell needs to let it fly. If she goes 0-for-30, so be it. Indiana simply doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to be picky. Mitchell needs to be aggressive, fearless, and relentless, even if it means living with a 36% shooting night.

If Atlanta starts sending double or triple teams at Mitchell, she’ll need to trust her passing and find open teammates. The Dream won’t guard Natasha Howard on the perimeter, daring her to shoot. Howard has to take those shots—and make enough to keep Atlanta honest.

Defensive Prayers and Tactical Gambles

Defensively, Indiana’s best hope is to throw the kitchen sink at Atlanta and pray for cold shooting nights. The Dream’s guards and wings—Ryan Howard, Allisha Gray—are simply too big and skilled for Indiana to match up one-on-one. The Fever will need to play a lot of zone, constantly switching looks to keep Atlanta guessing. It’s not pretty, but sometimes chaos is your best friend.

The reality is, Indiana probably won’t be able to hold Atlanta under 80 points. That means the Fever have to aim for 85 or more—a tall order, but not impossible if they control the tempo and get hot from outside.

The Danger of Playing Not to Lose

One of the biggest criticisms of Steph White is her tendency to coach not to lose, rather than to win. She’s brilliant at stopping other teams, but in the playoffs, you need to impose your will. If White keeps reacting to Atlanta’s moves—taking the ball out of Mitchell’s hands when she gets doubled, shifting away from her best players at the first sign of trouble—Indiana will be easy to take out of their game.

Instead, the Fever need to be proactive. They need to play fast, shoot early and often, and trust their stars to make plays. They need to use Aaliyah Boston as an offensive hub, not a post-up machine. If Boston is forced to play like Brie Jones, Indiana might as well book their tickets to Cancun—the series will be over before it starts.

Exploit Speed and Passing

With Dantas gone, Indiana can’t win with size. But they can win with speed. Kelsey Mitchell needs to exploit her quickness in transition, pushing the pace and creating opportunities before Atlanta can set their defense. The Fever have to play with purpose—controlling the tempo, mixing up their defenses, and keeping Atlanta off-balance.

If they can do that, they have a chance. If they fall back into old habits, trying to outmatch Atlanta in the halfcourt, they’ll get run off the floor.

The Bottom Line

The Indiana Fever are underdogs for a reason. The Atlanta Dream have the edge in talent, size, and versatility. But basketball isn’t played on paper. If Indiana can impose their style, play fast, shoot without fear, and keep Atlanta guessing on defense, they just might pull off the upset.

The blueprint is simple: run, shoot, and trust your stars. Anything less, and the Fever’s season will end in disappointment.

For Indiana, it’s time to play bold—or go home.